Question from Reading Comp Book--Definition of "Unlikely"

by **katrin.marquez14** Wed Jul 20, 2016 5:22 am

Sorry for the long post.

This may be a silly, but I want to verify something.

So I am going through the reading comp book and have a question pertaining to an explanation in Chapter 5 regarding the answer to a drill (NOT practice) question. On page 93 (4th edition) there is a inference drill in which we read a mini passage and then answer whether stated inferences can be reasonably made from the info provided.

The relevant part of the mini passage is: "The average mature female produces only a few eggs annually[....]only five percent reach adulthood."

My question is about this (valid) inference: "An average mature female desert tortoise's output of eggs in any given year is unlikely to result in any new adult members of the species."

I answered that the inference could not be made, but the correct answer is that it could. I understand why this is right but want to verify the meaning of "unlikely" on the LSAT. In my mind, unlikely seemed too strong a word in this case, but the answer explanation says: "We are safe calling something 'unlikely' as long as its likelihood is less than 50 percent." In my mind unlikely suggest a likelihood of much less than 10 percent.

My question is, ultimately: For the LSAT, should I assume the definition of unlikely is a likelihood of less than 50 percent?

by **ohthatpatrick** Fri Jul 22, 2016 11:31 am

Yes, the mathematical definition of likely is "greater than 50%" and unlikely is "less than 50%".

Likelihood comes from the mathematics of probability, in which any event has a probability from 0 to 1 of occurring. "0" means never. "1" means always". And 1/2 (or 50%) is the probability of getting heads, for example, on a coin flip.

5% is the same as 1 out of 20.

So if a female tortoise lays 20 eggs (which apparently would take about 6-7 years to do so), only ONE of those will reach adulthood.

In all but one of those 6-7 years, the female tortoise is laying eggs that won't reach adulthood. Thus in any given year, it's LIKELY that the eggs will NOT reach adulthood. We can rephrase that same fact by saying it's UNLIKELY that the eggs WILL reach adulthood.

by **AlanButler90026** Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:20 am

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Question from Reading Comp Book--Definition of "Unlikely"

Question from Reading Comp Book--Definition of "Unlikely"

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Re: Question from Reading Comp Book--Definition of "Unlikely"