Question 1811

[dnelson]

"A recent statewide census reported that the state’s population decreased by 10% in the past year. Since population changes tend to be determined by the economy, some experts argue that the decrease was due to last year’s economic downturn. They are incorrect, however, because as anyone knows, the decrease was due to last year’s flood.

Which of the following is mentioned in support of the main conclusion?"

The system says the correct answer is "Last year's flood caused the population decrease."

I thought that was the conclusion. So what is the conclusion? Surely not that "A recent statewide census reported that the state's population decreased by 10% in the past year," since that is a fact, and facts are usually premises.

[timmydoeslsat]

"A recent statewide census reported that the state’s population decreased by 10% in the past year. Since population changes tend to be determined by the economy, some experts argue that the decrease was due to last year’s economic downturn. They are incorrect, however, because as anyone knows, the decrease was due to last year’s flood.

Which of the following is mentioned in support of the main conclusion?"

The system says the correct answer is "Last year's flood caused the population decrease."

I thought that was the conclusion. So what is the conclusion? Surely not that "A recent statewide census reported that the state's population decreased by 10% in the past year," since that is a fact, and facts are usually premises.

A recent statewide census reported that the state’s population decreased by 10% in the past year. Since population changes tend to be determined by the economy, some experts argue that the decrease was due to last year’s economic downturn. They are incorrect, however, because as anyone knows, the decrease was due to last year’s flood.

I bolded the main conclusion. The part that follows it, starting with because, is a premise. You could have replaced because with since. The experts are wrong to argue that the decrease was caused by the economy. Why? It was the flood.