Q6 - Detective: People who repeatedly commit crimes

[hyewonkim89]

I was down to (A) and (D) and ended up picking (D)..

But I still don't see where "the majority" came from in the answer choice (A).

Help!

[dvo]

The conclusion of the argument is that it is likely that MOST people who commit embezzlement or bribery will eventually be caught. (A) says that the MAJORITY of people who commit embezzlement or bribery do so repeatedly. This is a necessary assumption because if they didn’t do so repeatedly, the chain of argument the detective sets out would not even be applicable because he’s specifically talking about "people who repeatedly commit crimes..."
Also, MAJORITY = MOST.

We don’t need to assume D (that people who repeatedly commit embezzlement or bribery become more and more careless the longer they avoid detection) in order to arrive at the detective’s argument. Even if they are as careful the 10th time as they were the 1st time, so what? This has no effect on the detective’s argument because he’s not relying on this specific scenario to arrive at his conclusion. If this were a strengthening question, D may be correct with a few modifications, but it is not at all necessary.

Not sure how clear that was but I hope it helps!

[rinagoldfield]

The author’s argument is missing some key components.

Here’s what we know:

Repeatedly commit crime "”> more confident
Repeatedly commit crime "”> more likely to get caught

The author concludes from this that "most people who commit [crime] will be caught."

The flashing missing piece is whether "most people who commit [crime]" do so repeatedly. What if only 2% of criminals are repeat criminals? Then most criminals are NOT more likely to get caught.

Another assumption is that a "greater chance" of getting caught means "WILL be caught." Maybe the likelihood of getting caught goes from 5% to 10% as a person keeps committing crimes. That’s not a very strong prediction.

Our task is to identify a necessary assumption, and (A) does so perfectly. Dvo, you articulated exactly why (A) is correct:

The conclusion of the argument is that it is likely that MOST people who commit embezzlement or bribery will eventually be caught. (A) says that the MAJORITY of people who commit embezzlement or bribery do so repeatedly. This is a necessary assumption because if they didn’t do so repeatedly, the chain of argument the detective sets out would not even be applicable because he’s specifically talking about "people who repeatedly commit crimes..."
Also, MAJORITY = MOST.

(B) mangles the premise about repeatedly committing a crime leading to confidence.

(C) brings in solving crime, which is out of scope.

(D) might help explain why people who repeatedly commit crimes are more likely to get caught. But that factoid is a premise. Our job is to link the premises to the conclusion. The conclusion concerns most people who commit the crimes, while (D) concerns people who REPEATEDLY commit the crimes. Eliminate (D) as a premise booster.

(E) is a premise booster. It dials up our premise that some criminals get away with it the first time.