Q5 - Recently, many traffic lights and street markings

[mshinners]

Question Type:
Explain a Result

Stimulus Breakdown:
A city removed some safety signs and expected accidents to go up (why did they remove the signs?!?!). Instead, accidents went down a lot! Also, the traffic stayed the same.

Answer Anticipation:
This question is interesting because it takes away a normal resolution for this question type - the "amount" went down, in this case, the traffic. If people stayed away from the street because they thought it was dangerous without the signs, that would explain the change.

With that option taken away, I'm at a bit of a loss for a specific prediction. However, I'm going to look for anything like that change in traffic - an explanation for what could have also changed because of the traffic sign removal to result in fewer accidents. More cops to replace them, perhaps? (Yes, I know I said I wouldn't have a specific prediction, but I came up with another possibility while writing.)

Correct answer:
(B)

Answer choice analysis:
(A) Opposite. If anything, this makes the paradox worse, because if the safety signs never had an impact, removing them shouldn't have caused anything to change.

(B) Yep, this definitely could have been a prediction! If everyone drives more cautiously because of the removal of signs, then there's a good explanation for the reduction in accidents.

(C) Opposite/Out of scope. Similar to (A), if people weren't aware of the change, then we shouldn't have seen much of a change, but there was a reduction in accident rates. Also, it doesn't matter too much if people were aware of the removal.

(D) Out of scope. We're trying to resolve a conflict about safety, so those other effects are out of scope.

(E) Too neutral. What impact did this have on their actions? Without knowing how they changed their behavior, we can't say if advanced warning explains the decreased accident rate.

Takeaway/Pattern: For Explain a Result questions, it's often better to have a general idea of the type of answer you're looking for (here, something that would explain why removing the safety signs decreased accidents) than a specific prediction (especially since mine ended up being wrong!). Coming up with one potential answer, however, can help you know generally what you're looking for.

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