by ManhattanPrepLSAT1 Thu Mar 17, 2011 3:36 am
I think you might be interpreting the stimulus slightly incorrectly if you feel that "it must fall" is too strong.
This is a match the flaw question. We need to first establish what the flaw is. The flaw is that the argument fails to consider a third possibility. The argument assumes that because the quality of education will not improve, that it must fall. The argument failed to consider the possibility that the quality of education could remain the same.
Answer choice (D) commits a similar error. This argument failed to consider that the outside temperature could remain the same.
(A) is probably the closest of the incorrect answers. This answer choice fails to exclude many possible alternatives - NOT just one. So for example, Raoul could have a mushroom pizza, or he could have a hamburger, or he could have a salad. And while this argument also fails to rule out a possible alternative, it's not quite the same. We're looking for the argument to say something along the lines that since something is not increasing, it must be decreasing - while failing to consider that the thing (whatever it is!) could remain the same.
(B) talks about likelihoods. This language is too weak and is wrong.
(C) says what may happen. This language is too weak and is wrong.
(E) is not a flawed argument!
Hope that helps... Good luck and let me know if you still have questions on this one!