Thanks for the question. I think your analysis is right on. Let me go through the entire question with you anyway.
Here we're asked to match the reasoning. The given argument has this structure:
X happening depends on Y. So, since X is unlikely/threatened, it's not because of Z, but because of not Y.
Before reading further, take a moment to chew that over and see how that's the basic structure.
Now, we're going to eliminate because of mismatched conclusions, premises or linkages between them. Often, as we're about to see, the first two reasons are enough:
(A) Premise is a weak match, but passable. Conclusion does not match - it is about rate. Eliminate.
(B) Premise does not match - it is about a comparison. Conclusion does not match - it is about what people should do.
(C) Premise does not match - it about what some students do. Conclusion does not match - it is comparing importance.
(D) seems to match! Keep for now.
(E) Premise does not match - where is the X depending on Y? Conclusion does not match - where is it being not Y?
To confirm (D):
X happening depends on Y. So, since X is unlikely/threatened, it's not because of Z, but because of not Y.
Not fearing change depends on knowing what the change will bring. So, since they ARE fearing change, it is not because of what the change entails, but because of not knowing what the change will bring.
Does that clear it up?
#officialexplanation