by ohthatpatrick Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:44 pm
Consider this analogy for a sec:
In an experiment, people who consistently bought Cheerios were found to be significantly more likely to use a coupon with their cereal purchase than were people buying cereals other than Cheerios. This fact strongly supports the conclusion that being a Cheerios-lover causes you to be a bargain hunter.
Think about how you might object to this argument.
These arguments we're considering all fall under the category of Causal Arguments:
- the author presents a Curious Fact as a premise
- the author's conclusion either explicitly or implicitly assigns a causal story that explains or interprets the Curious Fact
CURIOUS FACT: Why are Cheerios-buyers more likely to be using a coupon than other-cereal-buyers?
AUTHOR'S CAUSAL STORY: Being a Cheerios-lover causes you to be a bargain hunter, so these people were apparently searching for coupons that they could use to buy Cheerios as a discounted price.
Our job is always to ask these two questions:
1. Is there some OTHER WAY to explain the curious fact?
2. How plausible is the AUTHOR'S WAY of explaining it?
When the Curious Fact is a correlation, then the two most common OTHER WAYS to explain it are
1. reverse causality
2. third factor
If we said, "People who drive luxury cars are more likely to be wealthy than those who don't. Thus, driving a luxury car causes you to become wealthier."
We would probably say "No, dummy .... they were wealthy FIRST, and THEN came the luxury car. The wealth caused the luxury car, not the other way around." (reverse causality)
If we said, "People who drive luxury cars are more likely to own a second home than those who don't. Thus driving a luxury car causes you to want a second home."
We would probably say "No, dummy .... the luxury car isn't causing the second home. The underlying causal factor is these people are rich! Their wealth is separately causing them to buy luxury cars and to buy second homes. That's why luxury homes and second homes are correlated." (third factor)
In the Cheerios example, there was a correlation:
"Ppl who buy Cheerios are more likely to use a coupon than are ppl who buy other cereals. Thus, wanting to buy Cheerios causes you to want to use a coupon."
We'd say, "No, dummy ... the coupon came FIRST! What if Cheerios is the cereal that most frequently offers coupons? That would mean that people come to the store with the Cheerios coupon and then buy Cheerios since it'll be cheaper than a cereal for which they don't have a coupon. The coupon causes the Cheerios buying, not the other way around." (reverse causality)
When you're Weakening, you either
PROVIDE some other way to explain the curious fact
or
UNDERMINE the plausibility of the author's way
When you're Strengthening, you either
RULE OUT some other way to explain the curious fact
or
BOOST the plausibility of the author's way
In this argument, there is a correlation between "high galanin" and "chose fatty foods".
The author concludes that "high galanin causes them to crave fatty foods".
But what if she's got it backwards? What if craving fatty foods came FIRST, then came the higher galanin?
It's possible that fatty foods increase the amount of galanin in your brain.
In that case, rats that eat fatty foods would have higher galanin in their brain.
But the high galanin wouldn't have caused the eating of fatty foods; eating the fatty foods would have caused the high galanin.
This argument is vulnerable to this REVERSE CAUSALITY objection: "What if the eating fatty foods came first, and the high galanin came 2nd, as a result of (not a cause of) the fatty foods?"
(D) rules out that objection, by establishing that the high galanin came 1st.
We could similarly strengthen the Cheerios argument by saying
(D) The people who buy Cheerios did not already possess a coupon when they made the decision to buy Cheerios
When you see (D), or when you're reviewing this question later and thinking about why (D) is right, you want to be saying, "Ah, yes. This rules out the possibly of reverse causality by establishing that the supposed cause (high galanin) was already in place when the supposed effect (craving fatty foods) transpired."
Hope this helps.