Question Type:
Strengthen
Stimulus Breakdown:
We start off with our conclusion, stating that an unstable climate was probably a major cause of the fall of Rome. Why? Well, there were extreme climate fluctuations during that time period, which surely hurt food production, which made it harder to rule/defend Rome.
Answer Anticipation:
As we often see in strengthen/weaken questions, we have causality. In this case, it's definitely a correlation/causation flaw. However, interestingly, we have an intermediate conclusion, stating that the climate hurt food production. We know this is intermediate because it builds off of the correlation, but also because of the "surely" in there, which denotes this as something the author believes, not something the author is asserting as definitively true (like the tree-ring analysis).
Since we have causality, we should expect the correct answer to either eliminate an alternative cause to the collapse; show a time when a stable climate didn't result in bad agriculture or societal collapse; or another example of climate issues creating agricultural or societal problems.
Correct Answer:
D
Answer Choice Analysis:
(A) Opposite. This weakens the argument by reversing the cause.
(B) Opposite. This weakens the argument by providing cause without effect.
(C) Opposite. This weakens the argument by providing an alternative cause for the intermediate conclusion.
(D) This answer choice supports an intermediate conclusion in the causal reasoning chain by providing no cause no effect for the causal assumption that poor food production could be caused by bad weather.
(E) Opposite, if anything. Food production being higher in 550A.D. would, if anything, make it harder to argue that the climate led to bad food production, resulting in the decline.
Takeaway/Pattern: Many strengthen questions feature causality, and there are set ways to strengthen it (eliminate an alternative cause; no cause, no effect; another example of cause with effect). Here, the focus ends up being on the intermediate conclusion (connecting weather to food), but it still shows us an example of an answer choice that strengthens a causal argument by showing a time without the cause that also didn't have the effect.
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