Q18 - So far this summer there has been no rain

[mshinners]

Question Type:
Match the Flaw

Stimulus Breakdown:
So far, no rain, which is less than average. So it'll probably rain soon.

Answer Anticipation:
This is a classic Gambler's Flaw, aka a Temporal Flaw. Just because something was true of the past/was a general trend doesn't mean it'll continue in the future. The correct answer will also try to conclude something will happen based on the trend/average of the past.

Correct answer:
(C)

Answer choice analysis:
(A) Premise/conclusion mismatch. The premise here is about what is "sometimes" true, not what the average is. Also, the conclusion states "may" instead of "probably". (This argument is also valid.)

(B) Tempting. I'd probably leave this on the first pass. However, the fact this answer flips around the argument to be about what won't happen is a strike against it.

(C) Bingo. Based on a prior average, a prediction is made about a current/future situation.

(D) Tempting! Like (B), this flips the argument around to be about what won't happen. It also doesn't establish an average; instead, it brings up what has happened in the recent editing sprint by Aisha.

(E) Tempting! However, the conclusion mismatches in calling Aisha's editing skills into question instead of predicting errors in future issues.

Takeaway/Pattern:
Gear up for a tough fight when Q18 is a Matching question. I would probably skip this question and come back to it!

#officialexplanation

[yiming.mao]

Could someone explain why D is wrong?
Particularly, what does it mean that the argument isn't established on "an average"? Wonder if I can understand "seldom any errors" as "usually no error"?

Thanks in advance!

[ohthatpatrick]

Yeah, I would say that "there are seldom any errors in an issue of this journal" matches nicely to "usually a few inches of rain fall there each summer".

Here's the difference I see:

Original and (C):
REALITY has not been conforming to TREND. Thus, REALITY will soon conform to TREND.

Answers like (B) and (D):
REALITY has been conforming to TREND. Thus, REALITY will continue to conform to TREND.

[JaneF756]

Can someone please tell me what's the difference between "may" and "probably" in (A)?
Thanks!