Q16

[khaleesiwantstodolaw]

This question completely blindsided me. I picked B when I was drilling but in hindsight I understand why B is clearly. It's because lines 23-26 state that "many large complicated systems do not yield to traditional analysis." This means some large complicated systems potentially could yield to traditional analysis thus making the statement that "they do not always yield to traditional analysis" correct.

However, I eliminated C because of lines 52-54 which state that "large avalanches would remain unpredictable" but I guess its correct because of the use of the word "impossible". Is this why C is the answer?

[tommywallach]

Hey Khaleesi,

You were almost on top of this, but you missed one important thing. You wrote:

However, I eliminated C because of lines 52-54 which state that "large avalanches would remain unpredictable" but I guess its correct because of the use of the word "impossible". Is this why C is the answer?

The problem isn't just the word impossible. Take another look at that line you quoted: "To such a local observer...large avalances would remain unpredictable." See? It's not actually unpredictable; it's only unpredictable to a local observer. Now check out the sentence before it:

"By studying a specific area of the pile, one can even predict whether avalanches will occur there in the near future." So they can be predicted!

(A) is proven by 27-29.

(B) is proven exactly as you said, by 23-26.

(D) is proven by 29-31.

(E) is proven by 31-34.

Hope that helps!

-t