Q16 - Most pet owners who take allergy medication

[ohthatpatrick]

Question Type:
Match the Flaw

Stimulus Breakdown:
Conclusion: If Chuck develops an allergy to pets, he's likely to take allergy meds
Evidence: Chuck owns a pet, and most pet owners who take allergy meds are allergic to pets.

Answer Anticipation:
When you're trying to prove a claim about "likely" you need evidence about "most".

For example, if I say "Most Senators are male",
then I'm allowed to conclude,
"Thus, if Sam is a senator, then Sam is likely male".
But I am NOT allowed to conclude,
"Thus, if Sam is a male, then he is likely a senator."

This argument is trying to conclude that "if he gets a pet allergy, he's likely to take allergy meds." For that, we would need a premise that says "Most people with pet allergies take allergy meds." Instead, we have a backwards premise that reads, "Most people who take allergy meds have a pet allergy."

So the flaw we need to replicate is one in which we get a MOST claim in the evidence, Most A's are B.
and then we make a "likely" conclusion that goes backwards,
Thus, if something is B, it's likely to be A.

Correct Answer:
B

Answer Choice Analysis:
(A) Most AAE cars have electrical problems? Our conclusion should say "If you have electrical problem, you're likely AAE car". But this conclusion says "If taken to AAE, likely electrical problems". Not a match.

(B) Same premise as (A), so again we want a conclusion that goes backwards and says, "If you have electrical problems, likely that AAE". This seems worth keeping.

(C) Most AAE cars do not have electrical problems? Then our conclusion should say "if you don't have electrical problems, then likely AAE." Instead, the conclusion says "If you DO have electrical problems".

(D) Same MOST claim as (A) and (B), so we want "If you have electrical, then likely AAE." This conclusion says "if you do NOT have electrical …"

(E) Same MOST claim as (A), (B), (D), so we want "if you have electrical, then likely AAE." This conclusion says "if electrical, then likely AAE", so worth comparing back to (B). The only difference seems to be that (B) says "If the car has electrical problems" where (E) says "If she THINKS the car has electrical problems". Comparing that back to the original, we see we were talking about Chuck developing a pet allergy, not THINKING he had developed a pet allergy. Thus, (B) is closer.

Takeaway/Pattern: "On Matching questions, have a firm idea of what ingredients you need to replicate the original. As soon as you see one of the eligible ingredients, get your brain to say what the rest of the recipe SHOULD sound like.

Here, once we found our ""MOST A's are B"" premise, we could get our brains ready for what SHOULD be the conclusion: ""If B, then likely A"". That got us quickly down to B vs. E, at which point we needed to find the difference between them and compare it against the original."

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