Q14 - satellites orbiting earth

[mshinners]

Question Type:
Determine the Function

Stimulus Breakdown:
The current state of affairs is stated. The author then pivots with a "but" to a prediction about the future. Then, "After all" - which is a premise indicator - kicks off a description of the chain of events that will lead to that prediction.

Answer Anticipation:
After reading the question stem, I'm already of the opinion that the statement in question is likely the main conclusion of the argument. Why? Because language similar to "likely to" tends to be an opinion, which tends to be a conclusion.

Reading the argument doesn't change that assessment. The first clause is background, followed by a prediction. The language ("likely") as well as the fact that it's a prediction suggests it's the main conclusion (predictions tend to be conclusions, not premises). Following it with a premise indicator confirms this feeling. Since the last sentence builds off of the other premise, I can head into the answers looking for the one saying the statement in question is the main conclusion of the argument.

Correct answer:
(D)

Answer choice analysis:
(A) Fancy way of saying, "It's a premise." A premise is unsupported - it's simply stated as true. The statement in question is the conclusion, however.

(B) Fancy way of saying, "It's a premise for an intermediate conclusion." While I wouldn't say the last statement is an intermediate conclusion, even if you did, this would still be incorrect, as the chain of events culminating in the last statement support the author's prediction, which is the statement in question.

(C) Wrong function (intermediate conclusion). Again, I wouldn't classify the last statement as an intermediate conclusion; however, if any statement is, it's that last statement.

(D) Boom. Simply phrased answer for a complex stimulus, but it gets the job done. The difficulty in this question was the stimulus breakdown, not the phrasing of the correct answer.

(E) Wrong function (background). The first statement serves this purpose.

Takeaway/Pattern:
An "unsupported claim" is a fancy way of saying a statement is a premise. Be careful - an intermediate conclusion is a premise, but it's not an unsupported claim.

#officialexplanation

[Lsat 123]

Can someone pls help me out here. Im trying to understand why the answer is D and not C. The way I understand it, its role in the argument is an intermediate conclusion to the idea that "it will cause the space around earth to become heavily cluttered with dangerous debris". Thanks!

[maryadkins]

The key here is to understand that this IS the conclusion. It's not used to support other stuff—the other stuff is used to support it.

To see what I mean, apply what we call the "therefore" test—take the pieces of the argument and make one part support the other, then flip it. Whichever way makes more sense is probably the natural flow of the argument.

So which of the following makes more sense:

there will be a lot of debris in space --> the risk of a collision will increase dramatically

OR

the risk of a collision will increase dramatically --> there will be a lot of debris in space

The first one! The second one doesn't actually make sense.

(C) is the only answer choice that correctly identifies the relevant text as the conclusion. The rest of the answer choices try to trick you into thinking that just because the statement about debris appears LAST in the argument, it's the conclusion. But remember that the order in which statements appear doesn't matter.

[AbeT815]

The key here is to understand that this IS the conclusion. It's not used to support other stuff—the other stuff is used to support it.

To see what I mean, apply what we call the "therefore" test—take the pieces of the argument and make one part support the other, then flip it. Whichever way makes more sense is probably the natural flow of the argument.

So which of the following makes more sense:

there will be a lot of debris in space --> the risk of a collision will increase dramatically

OR

the risk of a collision will increase dramatically --> there will be a lot of debris in space

The first one! The second one doesn't actually make sense.

(C) is the only answer choice that correctly identifies the relevant text as the conclusion. The rest of the answer choices try to trick you into thinking that just because the statement about debris appears LAST in the argument, it's the conclusion. But remember that the order in which statements appear doesn't matter.

So (C) was the correct answer choice? This is the answer I picked by the same logic as you, but a poster above you claims that (D) is correct. I was torn between the two initially but chose (C).

[EvitaH77]

The key here is to understand that this IS the conclusion. It's not used to support other stuff—the other stuff is used to support it.

To see what I mean, apply what we call the "therefore" test—take the pieces of the argument and make one part support the other, then flip it. Whichever way makes more sense is probably the natural flow of the argument.

So which of the following makes more sense:

there will be a lot of debris in space --> the risk of a collision will increase dramatically

OR

the risk of a collision will increase dramatically --> there will be a lot of debris in space

The first one! The second one doesn't actually make sense.

(C) is the only answer choice that correctly identifies the relevant text as the conclusion. The rest of the answer choices try to trick you into thinking that just because the statement about debris appears LAST in the argument, it's the conclusion. But remember that the order in which statements appear doesn't matter.

I am still confused about the conclusion. The premise said that "once such a collision occurs", that's why I though the premise is talking about the things after collision rather than why "risk of such a collision is likely to increase".

[kamranm954]

can we tell that its a conclusion based on the "but" we know it is going to introduce an opinion? and normally that's the author's conclusion?