Q12 - Doctor: There will be more local cases of flu infectio

[ohthatpatrick]

Question Type:
Sufficient Assumption

Stimulus Breakdown:
Conclusion: More local cases of flu infection this year than last year.
Evidence: In addition to last year's strains, a new strain has infected some people this year.

Answer Anticipation:
Are we mathematically convinced that there are more cases of flu this year than last year? No, not yet. After all, there could just be fewer people living in the area. Also, it could be that people are taking better care to avoid contracting the flu. They might have developed / taken vaccines that protect them from last year's.

This author needs to think that "If new strain is infecting people IN ADDITION to last year's strain, then this year > last year". She's essentially thinking "New strain + last year's strains" will produce more local cases than "last year's strains" did alone.

Correct Answer:
E

Answer Choice Analysis:
(A) This weakens the argument, as it makes it more likely that fewer people this year would be infected by last year's strains.

(B) No one cares about rarity vs. commonality. We just care about # of cases last year vs. # of cases this year.

(C) This strengthens, but it certainly falls short of PROVING that this year will have more cases than last year. Easiest way to show that quickly is just that it's possible that the population of this city is half as big this year as it was last year.

(D) No one cares about danger, just # of cases last year vs. # of cases this year.

(E) YES, this locks in the idea that "new strain + last year's" > "Last year's only". If we know that last year's flu strains are giving us AT LEAST AS MANY flu cases this year, then the addition of the new strain infecting some people makes it mathematically certain that this year has more cases than last year

Takeaway/Pattern: This was less of a traditional "missing link" Sufficient Assumption and hinged more on just the underlying mathematical comparison. Any answers not dealing with # of cases were irrelevant, i.e. all the other ones (effective approaches? Rarity of new strains? Using old approach on new strain? How dangerous strains are?)

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