by civnetn Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:38 pm
I know nothing has happened on this thread for a while, but I've been studying for the LSAT and really appreciate the in-depth analysis this forum provides, so I'd like to contribute.
I have to say I also hate this question. However, I find that looking though various user posts on this forum, there seems to be an inclination to become a little closed minded and just say or think, "No. Absolutely not. I just don't agree with what the test makers are asking me to think about this question. They're wrong. This is stupid. End of story." I have to admit that I've been guilty of this same tendency. Especially with this question.
However, lately I've come to understand you just can't take that attitude, because like it or not, even though you may think the correct answer doesn't follow logically, and even though it feels good to just disagree with the right answer, if you sit down and tease out all the subtleties, I guarantee it's going to eventually be apparent why the correct answer is in fact correct.
That's exactly what I did with this problem, so here is my analysis.
Questions Stimulus
High school students who feel that they are not succeeding in school often drop out before graduating and go to work. Last year, however, the city's high school dropout rate was significantly lower than the previous year's rate. This is encouraging evidence that the program instituted two years ago to improve the morale of high school students has begun to take effect to reduce dropouts.
Questions Stem
Which one of the following, if true about the last year, most seriously weakens the argument?
1.) First you have to realize that this is a weaken question so automatically we are supposed to assume the stimulus is under suspicion and when
considering the answer choices, we are to assume they are true. This doesn't mean that information in the stimulus can't be correct! It just means that
it is possible for one of our answer choices to introduce new information that, if true, this suspicious stimulus apparently didn't consider.That is why it's
totally acceptable for the author to assume the schools new morale program contributed to the decreased dropout rate. In short, weakening questions
don't automatically presuppose that some information in the stimulus is incorrect. It could also be the case it simply hasn't accounted for some new
information, which the answer choices will introduce.
Answer Choices
A) There was a recession that caused a high level of unemployment in the city. Correct.
As others have mentioned, this recession has caused high levels of unemployment in the city and it's reasonable to think that if you were the average high school student, had low morale and were thus planning on dropping out, hearing there are no jobs would probably stop you from dropping out. After all, the whole reason you want to drop out is to go to work, right? And if you as a high school student wouldn't drop out because of this high level of unemployment, why on earth would your other high school compatriots drop out?
This answer choice presents us with an alternate cause for the reduced dropout rate. Sure, the dropout rate could have been decreased due to the schools new program, but with this alternately possible reason, the authors argument can't correctly state with certainty that the high school morale program had any effect at all. It could be the case that only the low unemployment rate is keeping students from dropping out, the moral program is failing miserably and all the number of students with low moral has skyrocketed!
B) The morale of students who dropped out of high school had been low even before they reached high school. Incorrect
It's pretty easy to see why this is an incorrect answer choice, but I always hate when someone says something is "obvious" or "easy" so I'll explain. Ask yourself what impact it has if the low morale high school students who drop out had low moral before they began high school. What if Johnny has had low morale since he was in playschool? Would that weaken the argument? It's very hard to see how. He's still going to end up and low morale high school student, which is the group we're concerned with.
C) As in the preceding year, more high school students remained in school than dropped out. Incorrect
This answer choice tricked me up at first and was the option I chose upon first taking this question. I thought, "Well if the number of students not dropping out remained the same, then clearly there's not an increase in non dropout students which means just as many students are dropping out as in previous years. Therefore, the moral program clearly hasn't worked. Obviously this is the correct answer!" This is why it's so important to pay attention to the exact language being used. Because of the time constraint, it's very tempting to just skim over the answer choices initially to see if one appeals to you. The danger here is that you're going to miss the subtleties. And on more difficult questions like this, the subtle variations in wording and phrasing are what is going to make or break you. That's exactly what I did here, I skimmed and I got burned. And I deserved it too.
A closer look at this answer choice reveals the correct application is more along the lines of, "Well if the number of students not dropping out, that is, staying in school, is like last year still higher than the number of dropouts, then....then what? Then nothing! It could be the case that the dropout rate has decreased in which case this number would still be higher, or it could be the case that the schools morale program didn't work at all and the dropout rate increased, but not to the point where the number of dropouts was high than the number of non-dropouts.
So this answer choice doesn't really do anything. It doesn't strengthen. It doesn't weaken. It just ... is.
D) High schools in the city established placement offices to assist their graduates in obtaining employment. Incorrect
Although I wasn't entirely sure, when I first took this question I had a strong feeling this answer choice was incorrect so I crossed it out. Here's the actual reasoning. So what if the high schools are trying to incentivize employment? You might think, "Well if I'm a low morale high school student, then I want to dropout and become gainfully employed. I want to work! But wait, my high school is offering to help me find a job if I stay in school and graduate! Yippee Ki Yay! I'm definitely not dropping out." If that's your chain of thought, then it makes sense to chose this as the correct answer. After all, it's providing an alternative explanation for why the dropout rate is decreasing.
Well, I'm sorry to disappoint you, but this is a great example of the LSAT test makers trying to trick you. They know that by the time you reach this answer choice, you've likely already considered A) B) and C). And they know that if you're still thinking intently about this answer choice, trying to determine if you should circle or scratch, it's highly likely you have no idea that A) is the correct answer choice. You're probably thinking, well hey, none of the previous answer choices make any sense. I've scratched them out and I have two remaining options so one of them must be correct. In other words, they know you're still looking for the right answer, so they're obviously not going to provide you with something that can be easily crossed out. Instead, they're going to present you with something that if interpreted incorrectly, looks like the diamond in the rough. So how are they going to do that? Well you thought pretty intently on 3 other options, 1 of which mentioned unemployment rate. You've got all these terms moving around in your head. High school, low morale, dropout rate, increase, decrease, morale program. It's really easy for your brain to connect unemployment with dropping out of school. And all of a sudden unemployment rate is in your mental vocabulary of terms you encountered in the stimulus that you have to check the answer choice against.
And just like that they've tricked you up. Because if you're reading this question and applying possible unemployment to your scenario, there's absolutely no hope you cross this answer out. They're relying on you thinking, "Well unemployment is an issue so I should clearly not drop out if I can't find a job. This placement office the high school is talking about is a real incentive!" Except it really isn't an incentive. I mean why should it be? What's to say you can't get a job just as easily without their stupid placement program? There's absolutely no reason to think you won't. All your low moral friends are doing it and they're working aren't they? You don't need that placement office at all. Screw high school. It's stupid. You could be making $$ flipping burgers at that sweet joint your buddy works at. By high school."
E) The antidropout program was primarily aimed at improving students' morale in those high schools with the highest dropout rates. Incorrect
O.k. So what? What if it was? In fact, what if the only students the program helped were in schools with the highest dropout rates. Would that change anything? I mean, not really! Maybe the program stopped 2,000 students from across the country from dropping out but they were only from high dropout rate schools. That could still decrease the overall dropout rate. Therefore, this clearly has no chance of weakening the argument and is incorrect.
Even if you don't immediately see A) is the correct answer choice, it's still possible to get there through process of elimination.
You go:
A) Hmmm maybe? No idea, I'll skip that one.
B) Clearly that has nothing to do with anything. It's neither here nor there. Cross out.
C) Maybe? Sounds a little fishy but it could be right
D) Hmmm maybe?
E) Clearly this is neither here nor there. Cross out.
So then even if you miss subtle clues, you're still down to A) C) and D)
Then you get rid of C) because you have some doubts and you're down to A) and D)
Even if you can't with certainty select the right answer at this point, you've got a 50/50 chance.