Q1 - CEO: While we only have the sales reports

[Laura Damone]

Question Type:
Strengthen

Stimulus Breakdown:
Conclusion: This will be a good year in terms of sales.
Evidence: In each of the last 5 years, the monthly sales average was less than $30 million, whereas the monthly sales average so far this year is over $35 million.

Answer Anticipation:
The conclusion is an absolute claim: This year is gonna be good. But the evidence is all relative: This year is better than other years. A correct answer might bridge this gap by showing that the other years were relatively good years, too. There's also something suspicious about the timing of the CEO's claim. We're 9 months in and our average sales are $35 million. If the last 5 years had averages under $30 million, we're on track to beat that out, provided nothing happens in the last 3 months of the year to dramatically lower our average. A correct answer might defend against that possibility by establishing that the last 3 months are big months for sales, or that sales are historically consistent throughout the year.

Correct answer:
A

Answer choice analysis:
(A) Here's our prediction! If A is true, it's unlikely that sales will plummet in the last 3 months of the year, thereby supporting the CEO's prediction that this year will be a good one.

(B) If the quality of the products has always been considered to be relatively high, that doesn't impact the sales in this particular year.

(C) While this may be true, it certainly doesn't lend any support to the CEO's argument. If anything, it might make us skeptical about the argument!

(D) This is a premise booster! It explains why we've seen increased sales thus far, but it doesn't give us reason to believe this trend will continue. In fact, it gives us reason to believe that the trend may not continue when it states that the campaign so far has been "unusually" effective.

(E) So what? Similar companies having higher sales in months 1-9 doesn't help us prove that our company is going to have good enough sales in months 10-12 to make it a good year overall.

Takeaway/Pattern:
You can strengthen an argument by bridging a gap, or you can strengthen an argument by neutralizing an objection. Be prepared for either possibility, even on earlier, easier questions. Also, Assumption family questions often supply us with arguments that have multiple gaps in reasoning, so you need to stay flexible. If you go into this answer choice set looking only for answers that address the Relative vs. Absolute Flaw, you won't find what you're looking for.

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