Oil and Natural Gas - CR

[sd]

Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so. Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.

Which of the following, if true, provides the most support for the conclusion above?

(A) Long-term weather forecasts predict a mild winter.
(B) The industrial users who consume most natural gas can quickly and cheaply switch to using oil instead.
(C) The largest sources of supply for both oil and natural gas are in subtropical regions unlikely to be affected by winter weather.
(D) The fuel requirements of industrial users of natural gas are not seriously affected by the weather.
(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.


Please explain how to chose between B and E. This is from the 11th section of the 1000CR. Thanks in advance.

[ojusve]

IMO its C.

[RonPurewal]

the passage tells us that the price of oil to industrial customers is going to stay low. there are no premises concerning the price of natural gas to industrial customers.
nevertheless, the passage claims, the price of natural gas will also remain low.

we currently have an argument in which the premise (the guarantee that oil prices will stay low) has NOTHING to do explicitly with the conclusion (that natural gas prices will stay low.
to strengthen this conclusion, we need something that connects the price of natural gas (the subject of the conclusion) to the price of oil (the only thing in the passage about which we know anything).

choice (b) makes this connection nicely. if natural gas users can easily switch over to oil, then the low price of oil will keep natural gas prices low, as natural-gas users would simply switch if the price of natural gas were to increase much.

(c) doesn't provide any reason why the PRICE of natural gas would be connected to the PRICE of oil, so that's irrelevant.

(e) is irrelevant, since the passage specifically disclaims the possibility of severe winter weather ("UNLESS the winter is especially severe"). therefore, any statement about the effects of a severe winter is irrelevant to the passage.

[wittaya_job]

Despite the approach of winter, oil prices to industrial customers are exceptionally low this year and likely to remain so. Therefore, unless the winter is especially severe, the price of natural gas to industrial customers is also likely to remain low.

'

Since the price of gas directly connected to the level of severity of winter, C and E can be eliminated.

(C) The largest sources of supply for both oil and natural gas are in subtropical regions unlikely to be affected by winter weather.

This choice is opposite to the fact mentioned in the argument that the price of oil is dependent on severity of winter.

(E) Oil distribution is more likely to be affected by severe winter weather than is the distribution of natural gas.

If true, the price of oil have to be affected as the price of gas do. But the premise does not say so.