rajkapoor Wrote:Thanks for the response,Ron.
I did know about the therefore rule but I struggle applying it at times,
especially when argument additionally contains an hypothetical condition
in the form of "If X , Y can/will happen" or "Although X,Y".
I fall in the trap of focussing on this conditional part of the argument structure and
breaking it into premises and conclusion.
e.g.
Forex Traders argue that Euro rises againt Dollar everytime Bernake goes out to lunch with Geithner to an Italian restaraunt instead of going to Subway.
If Bernake goes to lunch with Geithner tomorrow to Olive Garden,an italian restaraunt,we can expect euro rise against dollar.
sub-conclusion: Euro rises againt Dollar everytime Bernake goes out to lunch with Geithner........
premise: Bernake goes to lunch with Geithner tomorrow to Olive garden
conclusion: We can expect euro rise against dollar.
Don't sub-conclusion and premise lead to conclusion in above analysis?
The issue i falter on is the role of segments in the hypothetical condition.
The way you have suggested ,if I have understood correctly, is
If Bernake goes to lunch .... , we can expect Euro rise against dollar.
Therefore
Euro rises against dollar everytime Bernake goes out to lunch with Geithner to an italian restauraunt.....
Considering this , am I to believe that the the conditional statement as whole is one premise and that my mistake is to break this hypothetical statement into false premises leading to a false conclusion?
well, given the examples that you've posted here, i think the real problem is that you're using the wrong kind of reasoning for a "draw the conclusion" problem.
when you do "draw the conclusion", you must pick statements that can be PROVED from the existing statements. (this is known as "deductive reasoning")
in particular,
you are not ever allowed to extrapolate or generalize when you draw your own conclusion.even if you have observed some phenomenon occurring on a consistent basis, you have no grounds on which to postulate that this phenomenon will CONTINUE to occur.
in the example above, even if the reported activity with the euro and the dollar has occurred every time these two have gone to lunch, we have no reason to believe that this will continue to happen.
--
also, i think you're making the analysis a little bit harder for yourself by using the phrase "sub-conclusion" in that argument.
i'm not saying that there is no place for the term "sub-conclusion", since, indeed, there are arguments in which subsidiary conclusions are reached, and then those conclusions are used for further purposes (they are expounded on, or, much more commonly, debunked by a further argument).
but, you've taken a premise that is just handed to us -- the relationship between bernanke's lunches and the euro/dollar interaction -- and called it a "sub-conclusion". since this is just presented to us as if it were a fact, why don't you just call it a premise?
i'm not just trying to nitpick here; the distinction is important. if something is truly a "sub-conclusion" -- i.e., the product of some sort of reasoning based on prior premises -- then you should be able to criticize or weaken the reasoning leading up to that "sub-conclusion". on the other hand, if the statement is just given to us as a premise,
ipse dixit, right at the beginning of the passage, then you can't criticize it via logical argument.