ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in the personal finance section of a popular magazine:
"The average price of an acre of land in the United States is now 50 times what it was in 1970, and nearly 200 times what it was in 1920. The nation’s population is projected to keep increasing, even as the amount of land remains constant. Therefore, people who are approaching retirement should invest heavily in real estate in order to ensure their financial security."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
YOUR RESPONSE:
The conclusion of the argument that people who are approaching retirement should invest heavily in real estate in order to ensure their financial security seems to make sense. However, the premises stated that
1) The average price of land is increasing
2) The population is increasing but not the amount of land
do not necessarily draw the conclusion.
Firstly, the average prices of the land is increasing and is currently 50 times what it was in the 1970 and nearly 200 times as it was in 1920. This seems to be a general trend in real estate that as we move forward in time, the land prices keep increasing. The argument however assumes that this is the case with the land everywhere. However, this may be true only in areas which are ideal for living 'currently'. Over the years, human beings have expanded their territories. As population keeps increasing, we apparently need more place to live. We cut bushes, and forests and expand. However, the prices of the lands that are freshly 'made' this way don't increase unless there is good development in that area. Thus, the average prices of the land keeps increasing is not a general trend as it seems to have been stated in the argument.
Secondly, the nation's population is projected to keep increasing. Again, it depends in which areas is the population increasing. Is it in some states, cities, towns, or counties. This has not been defined clearly. If population is increasing in an area where there are not many people, as in our typical freshly made lands from the previous paragraph, there still is plenty of scope for purchasing land at economical prices which are not following a trend as mentioned in the first premise.
Finally, the argument concludes saying that the people who are approaching retirement should invest heavily in real estate. It doesn't seem to make sense why only this category of people should invest heavily. If the author is suggesting that the investments are going to be profitable in the long run by saying that it is going to ensure their financial security, why shouldn't other categories of people such as middle-aged people or people in their 30's invest in these lands? If the author thinks that the investments are going to be profitable, they will be profitable to everyone.
Therefore, although the argument sounds to be a solid argument, it is very weak, in that the conclusion, although sounds true, doesn't necessarily follow from the underlying premises.