CR: "Special Delivery" -

[aasha86]

I think I got confused on what the question was asking, is this an "all weaken except" question? I didn't like the online answer explanation.

For the last five years, the XYZ Courier Company has made regular delivery trips between Town A and Town B. The average time taken by the company’s drivers to drive the round trip between the two towns, excluding the time taken for loading, unloading, and delivery, over that period has been 80 minutes. John, a driver for XYZ, needs to make a personal trip between the two towns; he figures that he should allow approximately 80 minutes for the round trip.

Which of the following, if true, does not call John’s conclusion into question?


A. The route between Town A and Town B has been plagued by increasing congestion over the last five years, as the area's population has doubled during that time.

b. Most of XYZ’s courier vehicles are heavy trucks, for which speed limits are lower than for passenger vehicles.

c. Many of the packages carried by XYZ between Town A and Town B are large, high-security packages, for which the processes of loading, unloading, and delivery can take up to half the length of the trip itself.

d. John will make his personal trip at an hour when XYZ does not make delivery trips.

e. Before a freeway was built between Town A and Town B two years ago, the only routes between the two towns were state highways with multiple traffic lights and reduced-speed downtown zones.

[angadsalaria]

I suppose the confusion is what fulfills as a misconstrued conclusion on John's behalf. Is it that we're supposed to consider an underestimation as a wrong conclusion, or do we consider an overestimation as a wrong conclusion as well.
Here, we have to factor in both.

Option A -> Underestimation. Increased congestion on roads would mean John would take more than 80 mins.

Option B -> Overestimation. This would mean he would be travelling faster than the courier vehicles.

Option D -> Invalid Estimation. This implies that he'd make a trip during non-working hours of XYZ company. So the conclusion that it takes an average of 80 mins for a round trip during those hours is an invalid one.

Option E -> Overestimation. 80 mins is average of 5 years. This option states that for the first 3 years of that period, the average was higher. So currently it is lower.

Option C -> Packing/loading/unloading etc time is irrelevant to John's estimates and conclusion. And hence, the correct choice.

[dudettaman]

will go with the irrelevant option C and elaboration by angad is gud.

[aasha86]

Thanks for the help!

[jnelson0612]

I would agree that this is a weaken except question--good thinking!

[nowwithgmat]

thanks

[jnelson0612]

:-)

[dixitsandeep]

John conclusion is that he should allow approximately 80 minutes for the round trip.

where Option B ->
Most of XYZ’s courier vehicles are heavy trucks, for which speed limits are lower than for passenger vehicles.
If Option B is true this would mean he would be traveling faster than the courier vehicles.

If he travels faster that would only mean that he can make it within 80 minutes. Why does Option B weakens the conclusion?
In this case, why should an overestimation be a problem?

[jnelson0612]

John conclusion is that he should allow approximately 80 minutes for the round trip.

where Option B ->
Most of XYZ’s courier vehicles are heavy trucks, for which speed limits are lower than for passenger vehicles.
If Option B is true this would mean he would be traveling faster than the courier vehicles.

If he travels faster that would only mean that he can make it within 80 minutes. Why does Option B weakens the conclusion?
In this case, why should an overestimation be a problem?

Be careful! Here is his conclusion: "he figures that he should allow approximately 80 minutes for the round trip".

All we want is an answer that does not call that conclusion into question since this is a "weaken EXCEPT" question. Because of this, we are going to cross off every answer choice that tell us his trip will take MORE or LESS time than 80 minutes.

You are thinking of this from a more common sense standpoint . . . he wants to make the trip in 80 minutes and it's fine if he's early. But notice that is not the conclusion; that conclusion would state that he will make the trip within 80 minutes or less. The conclusion is only that the trip will take 80 minutes. Reasons that the trip will take more or less time weaken this idea that the trip will take 80 minutes.

[jonvindjohnsen]

I have a few questions about b).

Is it okay to make the assumption that he will drive his own personal car on his free time?

If he uses the company car, this ans. choice would have no bearing on the conclusion.

If the assumption holds, this clearly weakens the argument.

However, say he uses his lunch-break to make the trip. One could assume he uses the company car.

Why is this assumption not valid compared to the other?


Thanks!

[jonvindjohnsen]

Okay, please correct me if I'm wrong.


Since the ans. choice includes the possibility that he can use his own personal car. This ans. choice can weaken the conclusion.
The issue is not whether he actually uses his own car, but if he does, then the conclusion would be weakened.

Therefore, we can cross this off.

[RonPurewal]

I have a few questions about b).

Is it okay to make the assumption that he will drive his own personal car on his free time?

If he uses the company car, this ans. choice would have no bearing on the conclusion.

First, you can always make common-sense assumptions.

Second, even if he is driving a "company car", that car will almost certainly not be a heavy delivery truck, as described in the answer choice. It will probably be ... a company car, with the same net effect as if it were John's own car.

[JbhB682]

Hi - Can i eliminate Option E on the following grounds

The average time for the past 5 years delivering has been 80 mins ( we dont know if when delivering, the author has switched from state highways to freeways --- doesn't state anywhere)

--- When making his personal trip, he may or may not take the freeway...

------ if he takes the freeway, he may be faster than 80 mins : weakens the argument
------ if he takes the state way, he may be equal to 80 mins : strengthens his argument

Given the fact that these options exist and we dont have a definitive answer, we can eliminate E

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e) Before a freeway was built between Town A and Town B two years ago, the only routes between the two towns were state highways with multiple traffic lights and reduced-speed downtown zones.

[Sage Pearce-Higgins]

That's good reasoning, JbhB682. Although you could describe this question as a 'weaken' question, it's also valid to think of it (as you do) as an 'evaluate' question i.e. what would make a difference. Good work!