Image via xkcd.com

Over the past several days, Nate Silver has gone from baseball and political forecasting guru to full-blown media darling. Since correctly forecasting the winning presidential candidate in 49 and 50 states in the last two elections, Silver has been seen everywhere from NBC to Comedy Central. All of this culminated Wednesday when Silver won the ultimate modern-day achievement: trending Twitter topic. And while #DrunkNateSilver has already predicted the next two presidential elections and the ending to Star Wars 7, his sober counterpart has lessons that we can apply to our GMAT studying.

The PECOTA System- Finding historical similarities

Nate Silver first became famous outside of his consulting job when he developed PECOTA, which sought to predict the statistics and career arc of major league baseball players, as well as projected team win totals. PECOTA wasn’t the first projection system for baseball, but it was the first to use other players’ previous performances instead of that player’s trends. By comparing each player with 20,000+ player’s seasons since World War II, Silver was able to make a probabilistic distribution for individual players and their teams.
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